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»http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mchugh061905.html - Gold Eagle, 19.6.2005
But here's the key point I want to make: The Fed has the M-3 numbers coming in from banks across the country, knows whether the velocity of money is fast or slow, knows whether lending is on the rise or not, knows what a healthy rate of M-3growth is for the economy given trade deficits, GDP growth, inflation, etc, so the Fed has both the knowledge and the power to make key adjustments to the Money Supply by buying or selling stuff from/to the economy. Therefore, if M-3 is up 42.5 percent in one week, the Fed has allowed or caused that to happen. The Fed is responsible and in control.
If the Fed allows money supply to grow at an astronomical rate, something far beyond normal, something inconsistent with its rhetoric regarding "measured" increases in interest rates, then it is occurring because the Fed knows something. What do they know? If M-3 is growing twice as fast as GDP, five to twenty times as fast as inflation, is growing at an outrageous rate during an interest rate tightening phase, then the Fed sees a risk out there somewhere that threatens the velocity of money process, threatens to contract money supply, threatens to devalue wealth - some threat or risk the Fed feels it must compensate for. What threat do they see that they must allow outlier levels of liquidity to flow into the economy? We don't know. But by watching the M-3 numbers, and knowing the Fed's power over those numbers, we can logically conclude they see something they don't like very much, a risk sufficient that they feel the need to act upon it, long before the threat becomes public.
Maybe they fear an equity market meltdown. It truly amazes me how often M-3 growth goes bonkers just at the precipice of an ugly equity market technical picture. Maybe a derivatives blowup; or a hedge fund collapse; or, use your imagination. It is absolutely no coincidence that equities rose sharply from April 20th. For the three weeks leading up to April 20th, M-3 was up 67.2 billion, or 12.1 percent annualized. Hey, they had to stop the March 7th slide. But for the kind of M-3 increase we've seen this past week, we have to ask, "What else is out there?"…
Geldmenge M3Geldmenge = Bestand an Geld in Händen inländischer Nichtbanken.
Geldmenge M3 wächst stark: Was heißt das ?Das heißt, daß von der {Bundes- und europäischen Zentralbank / FED} alles getan wurde, daß genügend Geld für die Wirtschaft da ist. Allein: die Wirtschaft nutzt es nicht oder kann es nicht nutzen, weil sie es von den Banken nicht zur Verfügung gestellt bekommt. Das Geld liegt weitgehend 'nutzlos' herum und wird, statt investiert, im Geldmarkt angelegt. Aber auch einige Unternehmen und hier besonders Monopole schwimmen im Geld. Hier liegt eine erneute Gefahr, für Luft- und Seifenblasen Entwicklungen in der Wirtschaft - Jedem sein Dritthandy für's Zweitklo - und vor allem an den Börsen durch den Kapitalmarkt. Umsomehr, wenn man erstaunt registriert, daß der Ruf nach immer niedrigeren Zinsen und damit weiteren Zinssenkungen anhält. |
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